Boeing estimates that by 2040, air travel in Asia-Pacific markets will account for nearly half of global air traffic, driving 20-year demand for 17,645 new planes worth $3.1 trillion of dollars.
To sustain their commercial aviation industry, Asia-Pacific countries will also need aftermarket services valued at $3.7 trillion. Boeing provided the data in its 2021 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), the company’s long-term forecast for demand for commercial aircraft and services.
The Asia-Pacific region has diverse air transport markets, including mature economies in Northeast Asia and Oceania, as well as rapidly growing aviation markets in China, South Asia and North Asia. South East. With the resumption of travel made possible by the increase in vaccination against Covid-19, carriers in Asia-Pacific are well positioned to capitalize on the resumption of business and leisure travel as well as freight transport. air, according to Boeing.
“We’ve seen strong traffic resilience in Asia-Pacific when restrictions are lifted and passengers feel confident to travel,” said Darren Hulst, Boeing’s vice president of commercial marketing. “Carriers with efficient and versatile fleets will be positioned to meet passenger needs and air cargo demand with aircraft that reduce fuel burn, emissions and operating costs.”
Boeing CMO Analysis Meets 20-Year Demand for All Five Asia-Pacific Regions:
Southeast Asian countries experiencing rapid economic growth will also see fleet growth and passenger traffic well above global averages. Low-cost carriers are expected to expand their intra-regional networks with single-aisle jets, while open skies and trade agreements will allow carriers to invest in fuel-efficient jumbo jets to service long-haul routes. Southeast Asia is expected to need 4,465 new aircraft worth $765 billion and commercial aviation services worth $790 billion by 2040.
In Northeast Asia, mature economies will continue to support a balanced air transport market across domestic, regional and long-haul travel segments. Fleet replacement will account for nearly 75% of new deliveries as airlines seek to improve fleet sustainability and versatility. The region is expected to need 1,385 new aircraft worth $310 billion as well as services worth $555 billion over the next 20 years.
In Oceania, commercial aviation serves as an essential transport infrastructure over long distances and in island countries. Domestic and regional travel, which accounts for 80% of passenger traffic, will drive demand for single-aisle aircraft, while wide-body general-purpose aircraft such as the 787 Dreamliner will support long-haul and international network development. Oceania is expected to need 785 new jets worth $135 billion and services worth $165 billion by the end of the forecast period.
Boeing previously released its CMO China forecast. Forecasts for South Asia will be highlighted in the coming months.
CMO 2021 includes these projections for Asia-Pacific through 2040:
Single-aisle jets will account for nearly 13,500 deliveries, or about three-quarters of demand in terms of units. Widebody jets, including passenger and freighter models, will total nearly 3,800 aircraft.
The freighter fleet will more than triple to 1,160 aircraft, including new and converted models, to support diversified global supply chains and meet e-commerce demand. Asia-Pacific’s freight fleet is expected to roughly equal North America’s freight fleet by 2040.
Linked to economic growth and fleet growth, the demand for maintenance, repair, overhaul and modifications represents the majority of the forecasted demand for commercial aviation services. Digital solutions, analytics and training services will also support the Asia-Pacific fleet.
Boeing 2021 Pilot and Technician Perspectives (PTO) predicts that the region will need nearly 820,000 new aviation personnel, including more than 230,000 pilots and nearly 250,000 technicians and 340,000 cabin crew.